I'm Not Naive

Lots of diaries tonight talking about what Senator Clinton said today.  Lots of supporters on both sides taking issue with the other's conclusions.  I think we can all agree on a few things:

1.  Hillary Clinton is an extremely smart person.

2.  She is a tireless, disciplined campaigner.

3.  She is extremely good at staying on message, choosing her words carefully for best effect.

and 4.  If history is a guide, she never "just says something."  

Given these four characteristics, I can draw only one conclusion about her rationale for the statement she made today.  I'm not naive.  If you're interested, follow me over the jump.

In my opinion, Senator Clinton raised the specter of Bobby Kennedy's assassination as a last-ditch, desperate attempt to weaken the resolve of the superdelegates to support Barack Obama as our party's nominee.

First, it's clear to me--although Clinton supporters around these parts are conveniently ignoring the fact--that the Kennedy tragedy is a ridiculous rationale for remaining in the race.  In effect, Clinton is saying that, because something terrible could happen to the frontrunner, it's necessary that she refuse to concede.  That's patently ridiculous.  Had she not made this offensive, prejudicial statement, she would have been the consensus choice to replace Obama, were he for any reason unable to be our nominee.  It wouldn't matter if she withdrew, conceded, asked all her supporters and delegates to back him.  If he wasn't the nominee, she would be.  Or would have been.  As of tonight, a growing number of commenters here and elsewhere are opining that she has dramatically undercut her already slim chances at the nomination, at the second spot on the ticket, even at a future run.  And no, these are not the words of "desperate" Obama supporters.  Obama supporters have no reason for desperation.  (Note that the parallel with her husband's 1992 race is equally weak: In '92, California in mid-June was vital to the nomination, but there's no game-changer left on the calendar.  But as Senator Clinton knows, she has run out of logical arguments.)

Second, this wasn't, as one diarist has suggested, the words of a tired candidate.  Clinton has now raised the specter of the Kennedy assassination four times.  Why?  It goes to Obama's electability.  Last fall, many voters of various races believed that an African American candidate could not be elected president in 2008.  Many African Americans believed this to be true, and only the results of lily-white Iowa persuaded them otherwise.  As the math, so disdained of late by some Clinton supporters, has made her chances go from long to remote to vanishingly unlikely, Clinton has tried to sell varieties of the he cannot be elected meme.  First, it was Reverend Wright that would disqualify him--except that more voters cared about McCain's ties to Bush and Clinton's looser ties to trustworthiness.  Then, it was those "hard-working white Americans" who wouldn't support him.  They certainly didn't in West Virginia, Kentucky, and other parts of Appalachia.  But they avowedly did in Oregon, Washington, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia, Kansas, and many other states.  

Her disgraceful statement frames the meme in a darker light: Obama cannot be elected, because someone just won't let it happen.  Because the specter of Kennedy also raises the specter of November 1968, when the Democratic Party was trounced.  That's her subtext, whispered in the supers' ears: How can we risk another 1968, when I offer a lower-risk alternative?

Do you doubt me? On 60 Minutes, she had the following exchange with Steve Kroft:

"You said you'd take Senator Obama at his word that he's not...a Muslim. You don't believe that he's...," Kroft said.

"No. No, there is nothing to base that on. As far as I know," she said.

A denial non-denial.  Nothing untrue.  She actually says "no" twice.  And yet, there's a nuance--especially on the video--that leaves a soupcon of suspicion where none exists.  Why not just say "no"?  It was ambiguous enough to Kroft, who felt compelled to ask the question twice.  It was clear enough to Howard Fineman, who called the performance "brilliantly Macchiavellian."

And that's what today's response was, except it wasn't brilliant.  It was a desperate gambit, and the desperation was patently obvious to anyone who isn't focusing all their powers of concentration on envisioning a scenario in which she wrests the nomination from Obama.  Those are the people who will call this diary a "desperate" attempt to smear Clinton.  The ones who will decry my "faux outrage."  The Larry Johnsons who seek to demean my response by calling it "wailing."  Funny, isn't it, that the same folks claiming a vast sexist conspiracy would attempt to effeminize responses like mine as "desperate wailing."

I'm reminded of Wormtongue, when he hisses, "You lie!"  And Gandalf responds that the words pass too easily from his lips.

I'm also reminded of something Daniel Patrick Moynahan once said about Gerald Ford.  He was talking about Ford's words and actions during the 1976 campaign, and he focused on the footage of Ford tripping as he descended from Air Force One.  "This is a man who had been a great college athlete, and he's tripping on the steps of the plane," Moynahan said with a chuckle.  He wouldn't elaborate, but the implication was clear: Ford had accepted the presidency and had accepted the duty of running for re-election.  But he didn't want to remain president for another four years.  Unable to say so directly, he subtly undercut his chances.  Viewed in this light, Ford's debate declaration that Eastern Europe wasn't dominated by the USSR makes more sense.  A disqualifying misstatement, made in apparent earnestness and obstinately defended.

Senator Clinton is a pro.  She understands better than almost anybody in the world the stage she's on now and its ability to magnify every word.  This was not an unfortunate analogy, plucked out of the air by a tired candidate.  This was a desperate gambit.

Still doubt me?  Let's watch and see who's desperate.  Which candidate will respond to this issue in a presidential manner, and which one will parse responses and offer shifting rationales?



Display:


Re: I'm Not Naive (2.00 / 1)

You're not niave, just cynical.  Clinton goofed!  She tried to say something innocuous (campaigns last through June) and it came out sounding as though she'd said something awful instead.  But seriously, you think she planned this?  C'mon!


by IncognitoErgoSum on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:01:45 AM EST

Re: I'm Not Naive (2.00 / 1)

Except then she's stupid since what she said isn't accurate or even relevant to her situation.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:14:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

That's a good point that often gets missed:  the 1968 analogy makes no sense to the point that she claims she was making--a defense of a long primary, since this nomination fight has already dragged on much longer than the '68 primary did.  

How many times does she have to say something for it not to be a "goof"?


by Bargeron on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:32:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

That's what irritating about the explanation. It's not even accurate. It could be a goof (though in incredibly bad taste and accompanied by a terrible apology)but it's stupid on so many levels that it's clear she's imploding.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:36:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

Then she goofed 4 times. She has used the RFK comparison 4 times. Twice with the direct assassination comment.  Kinda like she "said something she knew not to be true" several times regarding Bosnia.


by IowaMike on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:04:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

Descarte would not believe you.


by prajna on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:38:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

You have an extremely articulate women who parsed her words, calculates her sentences, is nuanced in her speech. She knows what she is saying. She said what she said. She said what she said for a reason. She has said what she said many times now. Do you get her intent? She may deny her intent, but we have have heard her speech and have gotten what she intends to convey. There is no denying the underlying content.


by prajna on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:01:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

'She tried to say something innocuous'...
and she failed miserably.

Yet...

She was great once, of a noble race that we should not dare raise our hands upon. She is fallen, and her cure is beyond us. But I would still spare her, in the hope that she may find it.   ;)


by french imp on Sat May 24, 2008 at 08:58:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (2.00 / 1)

Usually those who are naive, can't see it in themselves.


by Scotch on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:02:56 AM EST

Re: I'm Not Naive (2.00 / 1)

All these diaries, all these comments, all these reading into the reading into the reading of words and what she really meant and "I know she really meant this" and because she once said that or her smile was crooked it must mean this....

Geez....

It's beginning to sound alot like the "Fairy Tale" and LBJ/MLK set up by the obama supporters.....

trying to make her and bill into racists....

now you are trying to make her into a murderer....

or that she is conspiring to set up his assasination......

When does reality set in and you realize a comment is sometimes just a comment?


by nikkid on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:03:56 AM EST

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

the diarist did nothing of the sort.

Please take the time to read the diary again carefully and refrain from projecting your own biases into it.

Thank you,


by DawnG on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:15:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

Thanks, Dawn.  Of course I didn't say those things!  Notice how often her supporters resort to hyperbole: So, because you thought her smile was crooked in the video, you think she wants to murder Obama?!  Not at all.  She was just trying to do things with words.  Clinton, in desperation for her foundering candidacy, tried to float a darker version of her he cannot be elected meme.  She got caught.  


by deminva on Sat May 24, 2008 at 07:52:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (2.00 / 2)

No, this isn't a nefarious conspiracy on her part.  She was tired, she misspoke.


by rfahey22 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:09:43 AM EST

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

I don't know if it was nefarious, but I am quite certain it was no accident.


by DawnG on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:16:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

I'm quite certain that your going from diary to diary and comment to comment tonight trying to paint as dark a picture as you can of the incident isn't any accident either ;)


by phoenixdreamz on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:31:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

um...no. (none / 0)

I have actually defended clinton from a few overzelous people a couple times tonight.

But I don't expect you to know or care.


by DawnG on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:37:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

She's mentioned it a few times before, so it's hard to argue that she was tired and misspoke today.


by Pat Flatley on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:30:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

Yeah, "misspoke" in the new, Bosnian sniper sense...


Can't rec or rate -- next username, please!
by neeborMolgula on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

Anyone who brings up Steve Kroft interview is dishonest. In that interview Clinton went out of her way to debunk the Muslim issue. After she had answered the question three different ways she said what she said and went on to clarify it in the same conversation. besides you have no idea what has been excised or edited form that interview. So you start with a dishonest premise and want us to believe that Clinton is somehow hoping for an assassination.


by rocky on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:29:03 AM EST

Re: I'm Not Naive (2.00 / 1)

I never said Clinton was hoping for an assassination.  I said her statement was a desperate, calculated attempt to make the Obama cannot be elected meme take hold.


by deminva on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:34:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let it go (2.00 / 1)

We are better than this... Hillary asked for it... she couldn't stop piling on the bitter/cling comments.. the wright stuff... etc... but this is over

Let's try to be the bigger people and let it go... she obviously doesn't wish death on Obama.. .let's let it go..

Silly season needs to end


by CaptainMorgan on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:31:04 AM EST

im sorry but i dont agree... (none / 0)

she looked exhausted in the video and she has mentioned on at least 4 different occasions the same topic worded similarly.  the delivery and connotations to me seem like a gaffe.


"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum
by canadian gal on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:33:44 AM EST

Re: im sorry but i dont agree... (none / 0)

the phrasing.


"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum
by canadian gal on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:10:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If Clinton's smart and disciplined ... (none / 0)

... what was Obama when he made his own gaffes?

Stupid and undisciplined?

Please, stop this insanity.


by Sieglinde on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:34:45 AM EST

Re: If Clinton's smart and disciplined ... (none / 0)

Yours is a weak attempt to change the subject.  Every candidate can misspeak.  Obama has never said anything nearly as callous and destructive as this.  And yet we've been told over and over how it's Obama who is the weaker candidate and Clinton who is the smarter, better campaigner.


by deminva on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:10:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Clinton's smart and disciplined ... (none / 0)

Why don't you just give it up before I find reasons for your bitterness, sweetie.


by Sieglinde on Sat May 24, 2008 at 08:43:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Clinton's smart and disciplined ... (none / 0)

Oh, oh, sweetie is it?  I'm being repressed!  Help!  I'm being repressed!


by deminva on Sat May 24, 2008 at 10:17:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I rec'd this (2.00 / 1)

because I like the fact that you use a lot of logical arguments without the emotional ranting.  I wish more people did this in their diaries.  I also liked (a lot) your earlier diary about the rules that we should follow (I forget what it was called).  Thus, I want to encourage you to keep writing and hope your diaries make the rec list.

But I still think you are overreacting.  While it is certainly plausible that she was trying to cast an assasination shadow (I don't think it is true, but it is certainly plausible), it is also plausible that she thinks her best two examples of a long campaign not hurting the party is 1992 and 1968.

We won in 1992, and we might have won in 1968 (the campaign was still going on in June) had the horrible assasination not happened.  I don't think folks believe the long campaign hurt RFK, and he was poised to win.  1980 and 1984 are examples of campaigns that went on long, but they are also examples of how the long campaign hurt the candidate who got the nomination.

That all said, I still realize she screwed up big time.  Desperate people sometimes screw up real bad.  And, a lot of times, once you screw up, the attempts to fix the problem only make it worse.


by sasatlanta on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:49:27 AM EST

Re: I rec'd this (none / 0)

Thank you for your reasoned reply.  I'm happy to disagree at this level of civility.

Given Clinton's intelligence, I find it impossible to believe that she really thinks '68 and '92 are the best analogies for '08.  '84, when the superdelegates pushed Mondale over the top, despite Hart's best efforts, is a far better analogy, especially since she could argue that the supers chose the weaker candidate, who performed terribly against Reagan.  In '92, her husband was the clear leader heading into California, and California mattered.  And the Kennedy tragedy, as I argued above, is in no way a cogent reason for the clear second-place finisher to continue vying for the nomination.  It's proof that continuing past plausibility is unnecessary, if the unspeakable happens.


by deminva on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:15:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I rec'd this (none / 0)

I completely agree with you that her argument makes no sense.  I just am not willing to assume that her motive is to cast a shadow.  I think her motive is that she has no good argument so she is trying to find the best one she has.  

I carefully choose words like "assume" and "think" to make clear I could be wrong, though I hope I'm right.  Ultimately, we'll really never know.

I also think she doesn't need a reason to continue, though I do think the MI/FL rhetoric was out of bounds.  I was less upset by the "white working class stuff".

I posted a diary yesterday where I suggested (and still feel) that part of her motivation right now is to force Obama to put her on the ticket despite the fact that he prefers not to.  If that is her motive, and if he isn't willing to agree, I don't blame her for pressing him.  However, today's quote may have backfired on that goal.

It's a shame you have to talk about "civility".  I agree completely with you and wish folks had more.  I am proud of all these impassioned Democrats and of how we are dominating blogging, but it's just not a tone that works for me.


by sasatlanta on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:38:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I rec'd this (2.00 / 1)

I agree that, whatever her motives, she has undercut her chances to join Obama's ticket.  My guess is that the media and other Democrats will cite her touching of a second "third rail"--the first being her Commander-in-Chief comments--as reason enough for Obama not to pick her.


by deminva on Sat May 24, 2008 at 10:16:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I rec'd this (none / 0)

I agree with you that the commander-in-chief comment was by far her most objectionable comment of this season.  I can live with most of the rest.


by sasatlanta on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:00:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm Not Naive (none / 0)

"it is also plausible that she thinks her best two examples of a long campaign not hurting the party is 1992 and 1968". 2008 is the best till now.

1992, Bill Clinton's win was done with California and its big basket of delegates being decisive. All well and good.  1968 had 2 good candidates close, but RFK was pulling away.

With the tragedy, the party insiders and LBJ went for Hubert Humphery, then Vice President and a man who hadn't competed in a single primary.

New York, California which were Kennedy wins were left out of the decision making. There were tons of Eugene McCarthy supporters and delegates left adrift also. Then there were Richard Daley's attempts to control the process by using police at delegates hotels including beating up some of McCarthy's supporters as they chased protesters and were fairly reckless in who they attacked.

  Senator Ribicoff of Conecticut denounced the actions on national television as he placed the nomination of Eugene McCarthy before the convention.

  That visual and the split and anger at having the nomination "stolen' or kept safe for the
"insiders" and given to the pro war candidate
after the vigorous campaigns of McCarthy and Kennedy was a huge outrage. Helped defeat the Democratic offeingr in November.

 Terrible example for Hillary Clinton to make, and really unfortunate if she wants to use it to persuade switching to herself as she trails by over 150 delegates.

 The lesson of her example is it would be catastrophic to snatch the nomination away from the pledged vote leader or by some coup or backroom suprise as Humphrey was. Nixon won in 1968, not Humphrey who had little legitimacy.

There are basically two small delegate states and Puerto Rico left, not much will change except BHO is within 60 delegates of having it decided by May 31st. And if he has well over 2025, he can include any combination of MI/FL seating and still win handily.

  Clinton's comment was a gaffe and awkward, and even though I agree mainly with deminva about it, I feel it simply points out how slim and unrealistic HRC's chances are. sahe wouldn'thave used it otherwise.


by PeteRock on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:54:16 AM EST


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